BOYD GAMING CORP (BYD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 revenue crossed $1.04B, up 9.1% Y/Y, with Adjusted EBITDAR up 6.7% to $379.3M; diluted EPS was $1.92 and Adjusted EPS $1.96, aided by broad-based strength (Online, Midwest & South) and lapping prior-year impairments .
• Management reiterated structurally high property-level margins (>40% company-wide; LV Locals >50%; Midwest & South ~37%) and stable core-customer trends; retail trends are stabilizing but not yet expanding materially .
• 2025 capital allocation remains balanced: $600–$650M total capex (including $150–$200M for Norfolk), targeted $100M per quarter in buybacks, dividend lifted to $0.18; year-end leverage ~2.5x (lease-adjusted ~2.9x) .
• Potential stock catalysts: continued outperformance at new Treasure Chest property, execution on hotel refurbishments/amenities, and progress on Norfolk (temporary opening targeted November 2025) while maintaining robust buybacks .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Online segment delivered strong revenue and EBITDAR growth, with expanded market-access contributions; despite low NFL hold, growth offset the headwind .
  • Treasure Chest land-based conversion continues to outperform, delivering segment growth and exceeding targeted returns; Q4 revenue there exceeded Q3 .
  • Managed & Other remained a steady contributor (Sky River), with multi-phase expansion underway to support future growth (additional slots, garage, hotel) .

• What Went Wrong

  • Ongoing competitive pressure at Orleans and Gold Coast weighed on Las Vegas Locals results, though other locals properties outperformed same-store market .
  • Retail customer trends are stable but not yet showing consistent growth; management remains cautious on broader same-store trajectory into 2025 .
  • Weather early in Q1 2025 is a near-term headwind in Midwest & South, similar to last year’s first quarter .

Financial Results

Note: S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved at this time due to API limits; estimate comparisons are unavailable.

Segment revenues

Segment Adjusted EBITDAR

KPIs and balance sheet/capital returns

Margins (management commentary)

• Company property-level operating margins “over 40%” sustained; LV Locals margins “exceed 50%”; Midwest & South margins ~37% .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Quarterly revenues surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time, while EBITDAR increased to nearly $380 million... strength in play from our core customers and stable trends in play from our retail customers.” — Keith Smith .
• “We finished 2024 generating nearly $1.4 billion in EBITDAR with annual property level margins exceeding 40%... diversified portfolio generates significant free cash flow.” — Josh Hirsberg .
• “We remain committed to $100 million per quarter in repurchase activity, supplemented by our ongoing dividend program... total leverage of approximately 2.5x.” — Keith Smith .
• “For 2025, we expect to generate approximately $80–$85 million from our Online segment… total capex ~$600–$650 million including $150–$200 million for Virginia.” — Josh Hirsberg .

Q&A Highlights

• Core vs Retail: Core customers continue to grow; retail is stable outside LV and “getting less bad” in LV; cautious on a 2025 retail inflection .
• Margins/Flow-through: Expense pressures moderating; expect consistent margins (LV Locals >50%, MS ~37%) barring changes in spend behavior .
• Online Hold: Low NFL hold impacted Online, but growth and market access contributions offset; 2025 Online EBITDAR guided to $80–$85M .
• Development/Capital Allocation: Ongoing pipeline (Norfolk, Cadence Crossing, Par-A-Dice); capital returns balanced with growth; opportunistic buybacks with $640M authorization remaining at YE .
• Norfolk Temporary Facility: Included in total $750M cost; targeted Nov 2025 opening; assumed breakeven contribution as focus stays on permanent resort .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for BYD (revenue/EPS/EBITDA) could not be retrieved at this time due to request-limit constraints. As a result, quantified “vs. consensus” comparisons for Q4 2024 are unavailable. We will update this section once S&P Global data access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Mix and diversification continue to work: Online growth (despite volatility in sports hold), Treasure Chest outperformance, and steady Managed contributions supported a >$1B revenue quarter and higher Adjusted EBITDAR .
• Margin durability persists: Property-level margins >40% remain intact; LV Locals still exceed 50%, with expectation for Orleans/Gold Coast stabilization in 2H25 .
• Clear 2025 capex roadmap with visible catalysts: Norfolk spend, Ameristar St. Charles expansion (fall 2025), Cadence Crossing (mid-2026), hotel refurbishments; supports medium-term EBITDA growth .
• Capital returns remain robust: $203M Q4 repurchases, commitment to ~$100M per quarter in 2025, dividend raised to $0.18—shareholder yield remains a support for the stock .
• Watch near-term macro/weather and retail recovery: Midwest & South Q1 weather a known headwind; retail stabilization is constructive but not yet growing, moderating near-term upside .
• Upside swing factors: Further Treasure Chest outperformance, faster retail recovery, and timely execution on development milestones (Norfolk temp opening, Cadence) .
• M&A optionality balanced with returns: Management will weigh internal projects and buybacks vs deals, prepared to flex leverage opportunistically for compelling assets .

References:

• Q4/FY 2024 earnings press release and 8-K exhibit: revenues, EPS, Adjusted EBITDAR/Adjusted EPS, segment detail, cash/debt, repurchases .
• Q4 2024 earnings call transcript: segment dynamics, margin commentary, capex/guidance, buyback cadence, leverage, development pipeline, consumer trends, online hold .
• Prior quarters’ press releases for trends and segment comps: Q3 2024, Q2 2024 .
• Dividend increase PR (post-Q4): new quarterly dividend rate .